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Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.

That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion

The team have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Discussions range over identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."

Call for Broader Debate

Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."